CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2018-03-05T23:39:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2018-03-05T23:39ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13716/-1
CME Note: First seen in STA Cor2 at 2018-03-05T23:39Z, but this is after a data gap from 19:30Z to 23:30Z so the true start time is uncertain. The source is likely the long-duration filling in of the dim CH region visible in the South of AIA 193, centered around longitude -10, beginning around 18:00 on 2018-03-05. The CME is also visible as a faint partial halo to the SW in C2/C3, but not visible in the difference imaging.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T23:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T10:43Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V2. ****************************************************************************** CME_speed = 490.0 km/s (+/- 90 km/s) u_r = 544.8 Duration in seconds: 299095.17 Duration in days: 3.4617496 ****************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.36 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 437.3 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/03/2018 Time: 10:43 UT ******************************************************************************Lead Time: 62.50 hour(s)
Difference: 12.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2018-03-07T09:00Z
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